AZ-01 Arizona's 1st District

Candidate

Predicted Vote %

Predicted Win %

Tom O'Halleran

52.6%

75.1%

Wendy Rogers

47.4%

24.9%

BPI

Blair Partisan Index

Measures how strongly a district leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party compared to the nation as a whole.

 

0.9%

SEER Prediction

SEER Prediction

Forecasted Democratic % of vote, without considering national mood or polling.

 

54.4%

District Profile Last Updated: Oct. 5, 2018, 11:47 a.m.

This district includes much of the state outside of the Phoenix and Tucson metropolitan areas, as well as multiple American Indian reservations. Since 2010, this seat has been held by a Democrat. The incumbent, Tom O'Halleran (D), only joined the Democratic Party in 2015 after leaving the Republican Party in 2014. He is a central Democrat running against Wendy Rogers, a retired Air Force colonel who has centered her campaign around supporting President Trump.

District Updates and Posts

Latest Polls

PoliStat | Oct. 11, 2018, 11:13 p.m.

Oct. 31-Nov. 1    Optimus    756 LV    O'Halleran 48%    Rogers 45%

Oct. 16-18    American Viewpoint    400 LV    O'Halleran 46%    Rogers 46%

Oct. 9-10    Go Right Strategies    943 LV    O'Halleran 38%    Rogers 44%

Sep. 27-28    Go Right Strategies    738 LV    O'Halleran 36%    Rogers 39%