MBHS Polistat's

ORACLE of Blair

2018 House Election Forecast

Current Prediction

Each square is one congressional district.

Recent Updates & Posts

Blog Post

How our Model Compared to Other Models

PoliStat | Nov. 8, 2018, 8:56 a.m.
A Log-Loss Analysis of the House Models of ORACLE, FiveThirtyEight, and Crosstab

Blog Post

While We’re at it, Let’s Make a Senate Model

PoliStat | Nov. 6, 2018, 3:26 p.m.
A Rudimentary Senate Election Model Based off of ORACLE (finalized 11/6/2018, 3:26 pm)

Blog Post

Should The Economist take the Economy into Account?

PoliStat | Nov. 5, 2018, 7:50 a.m.
A comparison of The Economist's prediction model and Blair ORACLE's model

Blog Post

Blairvoyance and CANTOR

PoliStat | Nov. 3, 2018, 5:52 p.m.
We analyze and criticize CANTOR and Blairvoyance, systems which attempt to simulate polls in districts without them.

Blog Post

The Pennsylvania Predicament

PoliStat | Nov. 3, 2018, 5:52 p.m.
How Redistricting Affects Democracy and Prediction Models