Sep. 26-Oct. 1 Siena College/New York Times 502 LV Kirkpatrick 50% Peterson 39%
AZ-02 Arizona's 2nd District
Predicted Vote %
Predicted Win %
Lea Marquez Peterson
Blair Partisan Index
Measures how strongly a district
leans toward the Democratic or
Republican Party compared to the
nation as a whole.
District Profile Last Updated: Oct. 5, 2018, 11:47 a.m.
Located in the southeastern corner of Arizona, this district includes about two-thirds of Tucson and 85.5% of its population is white. Although the then-Republican incumbent, Martha McSally, womped her opponent in 2016 on the coattails of Trump, in 2012 and 2014 the congressional elections in this district were decided by less than a percentage point. McSally is running for the senate seat vacated by Jeff Flake this year, leaving this race wide open. The Republican candidate, Lea Marquez Peterson, is the CEO of the Tucson Hispanic Chamber of Commerce and has a platform similar to that of the president; she favors building a wall along the Mexican border and wants to repeal the Affordable Care Act. Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick previously served three terms in another Arizona congressional district and is running for the the 2nd district after losing a senatorial campaign to the late John McCain in 2016.