CA-10 California's 10th District

Candidate

Predicted Vote %

Predicted Win %

Josh Harder

51.7%

65.9%

Jeff Denham

48.3%

34.1%

BPI

Blair Partisan Index

Measures how strongly a district leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party compared to the nation as a whole.

 

1.2%

SEER Prediction

SEER Prediction

Forecasted Democratic % of vote, without considering national mood or polling.

 

46.8%

District Profile Last Updated: Oct. 5, 2018, 11:47 a.m.

California's 10th congressional district contains parts of San Joaquin and Stanislaus county, as well as cities such as Oakdale and Manteca. The race is currently between Republican incumbent Jeff Denham, who has been in his seat since 2013, and the Democratic challenger Josh Harder. In this district, the presidential election of 2012 results were in favor of Obama by 0.12%, the house election results in 2014 were in favor of Jeff Denham by 3.15%, the presidential election results in 2016 were in favor of Clinton by 0.49%, and the house election results of 2016 were in favor of Denham by 1.55%.

District Updates and Posts

Relevant Polls

PoliStat | Oct. 11, 2018, 11:13 p.m.

Sept 16-23  UC Berkeley  726 LV  Harder 50%  Denham 45%

Jun 27-Jul 1  Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group  501 LV  Harder 48% Denham 48%

Oct 21-Oct 25   Sienna College/New York Times  501 LV  Harder 47% Denham 45%