CA-04 California's 4th District

Candidate

Predicted Vote %

Predicted Win %

Tom McClintock

55.8%

89.6%

Jessica Morse

44.2%

10.4%

BPI

Blair Partisan Index

Measures how strongly a district leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party compared to the nation as a whole.

 

-9.4%

SEER Prediction

SEER Prediction

Forecasted Democratic % of vote, without considering national mood or polling.

 

36.2%

District Profile Last Updated: Oct. 5, 2018, 11:47 a.m.

California's 4th congressional district contains many natural wonders including the a stretch of the Sierra Nevada mountain range and the Sequoia National Forest, but also contains part of large countries like Fresno, Madera, and Nevada. The race is currently between Republican incumbent Tom McClintock, who has been representing the district since 2009, and Democratic challenger Jessica Morse. In this district, the presidential election of 2012 results were in favor of Romney by 11.41%, the house election results in 2014 were in favor of Tom McClintock by 11.32%, the presidential election results in 2016 were in favor of Trump by 8.99%, and the house election results of 2016 were in favor of McClintock by 13.27%.

District Updates and Posts

Relevant Polls

PoliStat | Oct. 25, 2018, 7:55 a.m.

Oct 15-16    Clarity Campaign Labs   840 LV   Morse 45%  McClintock 49%