Connecticut's 4th congressional district is the closest in proximity to New York City and is 96% urban. The total Population is 737,616, the median Age is 40.0, the population is 73.52% white and the unemployment rate is 6.8%. It has the highest mean household income ($160,480) of all five of Connecticut's congressional districts and one in five adults have at least a bachelor's degree. The population is predominantly white. The district was a Republican stronghold up until the 2008 election when the district flipped. Democrat Jim Himes has been holding the seat since 2008 and is running as an incumbent in this election cycle. Himes won with 60% of the votes in 2016, and is running against Republican Harry Arora. Our fundamentals only model predicts Himes winning.