FL-16 Florida's 16th District

Candidate

Predicted Vote %

Predicted Win %

Vern Buchanan

54.7%

94.8%

David Shapiro

45.3%

5.2%

BPI

Blair Partisan Index

Measures how strongly a district leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party compared to the nation as a whole.

 

-5.7%

SEER Prediction

SEER Prediction

Forecasted Democratic % of vote, without considering national mood or polling.

 

39.9%

District Profile Last Updated: Oct. 5, 2018, 11:47 a.m.

It’s a pretty nice block that includes Hillsborough, Manatee, and Sarasota Counties right along the western coast of Florida. I have no formed opinions on any of those counties, although if someone has direct evidence that it’s disgusting, I wouldn’t doubt it. Hillsborough voted Democrat in previous presidential races (2008 - 2016) with around a 6 point margin, but Sarasota voted Republican with the same margin, and Manatee is Republican by around 12 points. David Shapiro (D) is a lawyer with no political experience, while the Republican incumbent Vern Buchanan is a millionaire who has received illegal campaign contributions.

District Updates and Posts

Polls

PoliStat | Oct. 11, 2018, 11:13 p.m.

Oct. 4-7    Public Opinion Strategies    400 LV    Shapiro 42%    Buchanan 52%

Sep. 30-Oct. 2    University of North Florida    551 LV    Shapiro 40%    Buchanan 49%

Oct. 1    St. Pete Polls    1,248 LV    Shapiro 43%    Buchanan 50%

Aug. 22-25    Anzalone Liszt Grove Research    400 LV    Shapiro 44%    Buchanan 48%

Jul. 28    St. Pete Polls    681 LV    Shapiro 35%    Buchanan 44%

Apr. 16-17    Public Policy Polling    655 V    Shapiro 37%    Buchanan 49%