FL-18 Florida's 18th District

Candidate

Predicted Vote %

Predicted Win %

Brian Mast

52.9%

77.4%

Lauren Baer

47.1%

22.6%

BPI

Blair Partisan Index

Measures how strongly a district leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party compared to the nation as a whole.

 

-1.5%

SEER Prediction

SEER Prediction

Forecasted Democratic % of vote, without considering national mood or polling.

 

44.2%

District Profile Last Updated: Oct. 5, 2018, 11:47 a.m.

This district kind of looks like a head with a really sharp nose and contains St. Lucie, Martin, and northern Palm Beach counties. Palm Beach voted Democrat in previous presidential races (2008 - 2016) with around a 17 point margin, Martin voted Republican with a 20 point margin, and St. Lucie flipped from Obama by 7 points (2012) to Trump by 2. Lauren Baer (D) is a lawyer and foreign policy expert who served in the Obama administration, and the incumbent Brian Mast (R) served in various branches of the military before being elected to the House in 2017.

District Updates and Posts

Polls

PoliStat | Oct. 11, 2018, 11:13 p.m.

Oct. 27-29    Change Research    475 LV    Baer 44%    Mast 53%

Sep. 26-30    Global Strategy Group    400 LV    Baer 45%    Mast 48%

Sep. 17-19    Public Policy Polling    533 V    Baer 43%    Mast 46%

Sep. 11-16    Global Strategy Group    600 LV    Baer 44%    Mast 50%

May 1-6    Global Strategy Group    600 LV    Baer 34%    Mast 52%