FL-05 Florida's 5th District

Candidate

Predicted Vote %

Predicted Win %

Alfred Lawson

66.5%

99.8%

Virginia Fuller

33.5%

0.2%

BPI

Blair Partisan Index

Measures how strongly a district leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party compared to the nation as a whole.

 

12.2%

SEER Prediction

SEER Prediction

Forecasted Democratic % of vote, without considering national mood or polling.

 

65.7%

District Profile Last Updated: Oct. 5, 2018, 11:47 a.m.

Florida-5 is a long, rectangular district stretching along the Northern border from Jacksonville to Tallahassee. The district is 48% white and 42% black, with 83% of its residents living in urban areas. This district was the subject of a 2014 court ruling on racialized gerrymandering, in which it was found that most of the area’s African American population had been scattered between nearby, staunchly Republican districts. The borders were subsequently changed, and the district shifted from overwhelmingly Republican to solidly Democratic. The district went for Hillary Clinton in 2016. Incumbent Democrat Al Lawson won with 64% of the vote in 2016, and was one of the first to express frustration with the gun lobby after the Parkland school shooting. He firmly supports a ban on assault weapons. His Republican opponent, Virginia Fuller, is a former nurse running on an anti-abortion and pro-Trump message. Cook rates this district D+12.

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