FL-06 Florida's 6th District

Candidate

Predicted Vote %

Predicted Win %

Michael Waltz

52.4%

75.8%

Nancy Soderberg

47.6%

24.2%

BPI

Blair Partisan Index

Measures how strongly a district leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party compared to the nation as a whole.

 

-6.1%

SEER Prediction

SEER Prediction

Forecasted Democratic % of vote, without considering national mood or polling.

 

39.5%

District Profile Last Updated: Oct. 5, 2018, 11:47 a.m.

Florida-6 is a small, triangular district on the state’s east coast. It contains Daytona Beach, home of NASCAR, as well as parts of Ocala and Gainesville. The district is 86% urban and 84% white, and went solidly for Trump in 2016. Previous incumbent Republican Ron Desantis served 3 terms in Congress and was elected in 2016 with 58% of the vote. He resigned in September to run for Governor, leaving two candidates with no incumbency advantage: Republican Michael Waltz and Democrat Nancy Soderberg. Waltz is a former Green Beret who will prioritize affordable healthcare and border security. Soderberg formerly worked for the Clinton administration as a UN ambassador and a member of the National Security Council, and narrowly lost a race last term for the district 4 house seat. Her priorities include foreign policy and education reform. Cook ranks this district R+7.

District Updates and Posts

Latest Polls

PoliStat | Oct. 11, 2018, 11:13 p.m.

Date               Polling Company                Sample             Predicted vote share 


Oct 1-4     Greenberg Quinlan Rosner     400 LV        Soderberg 45%   Waltz 45%  


Sep 19      St.Pete Polls                             981 LV        Soderberg 43%   Waltz 48%


Sep 4-6     Greenberg Quinlan Rosner    400 LV        Soderberg 46%   Waltz 47%