KY-06 Kentucky's 6th District

Candidate

Predicted Vote %

Predicted Win %

Andy Barr

50.8%

62.0%

Amy McGrath

49.2%

38.0%

BPI

Blair Partisan Index

Measures how strongly a district leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party compared to the nation as a whole.

 

-6.7%

SEER Prediction

SEER Prediction

Forecasted Democratic % of vote, without considering national mood or polling.

 

38.9%

District Profile Last Updated: Oct. 5, 2018, 11:47 a.m.

Kentucky 6th contains most notably Lexington and the state’s capital, Frankfort. It is located in the northeast and is 72.59% urban and 27.41% rural. The race makeup is 84.78% White, 8.78% Black, 2.03% Asian, 4.74% Hispanic, and 0.2% Native American. This district has historically been the most variable district in Kentucky. The Republicans held the seat in 2002,  but then the Democrats won it back from 2004 to 2010. However the Republican incumbent Andy Barr has been this district’s representative since 2012 regaining the seat from the Democrats. His opponent, Democratic candidate Amy McGrath emphasizes her military background in the US Marine Corps completing two combat flying tours in Afghanistan and Iraq. She states she won’t vote based on party line wants the district’s economy to promote agriculture, manufacturing, and technology.

District Updates and Posts

Polls In Our Model

PoliStat | Oct. 11, 2018, 11:13 p.m.

Nov 1-4    Siena College    438LV    McGrath 44%    Barr 44%

Oct 6-8    Public Opinion Strategies    400RV    McGrath 46%    Barr 48%

Sep 30-Oct 2    Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group    501LV    McGrath 51%    Barr 44%

Sep 12-17    Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research    600LV    McGrath 47%    Barr 47%

Sep 6-8    Siena College    506LV    McGrath 46%    Barr 47%

Sep 4-6   Fabrizio, Lee & Associates    400LV    McGrath 45%    Barr 49%

Aug 23-26    Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group    401LV    McGrath 44%    Barr 49%

Jul 7-10    Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group    461LV    McGrath 50%    Barr 43%

Jun 6-7    Fabrizio, Lee & Associates    400LV    McGrath 51%    Barr 38%

Apr 30 - May 2    DCCC Targeting Team    508LV    McGrath 52%    Barr 37%

Feb 5-7    Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group    401LV    McGrath 44%    Barr 48%