ME-02 Maine's 2nd District

Candidate

Predicted Vote %

Predicted Win %

Jared Golden

50.3%

54.4%

Bruce Poliquin

49.7%

45.6%

BPI

Blair Partisan Index

Measures how strongly a district leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party compared to the nation as a whole.

 

-3.1%

SEER Prediction

SEER Prediction

Forecasted Democratic % of vote, without considering national mood or polling.

 

42.5%

District Profile Last Updated: Oct. 5, 2018, 11:47 a.m.

Maine’s second congressional district makes up the huge majority of the state by land area and is the second most rural district in the country. It includes the cities of Bangor, Lewiston, Auburn, and Presque Isle, although Maine’s largest cities are all in the first district. From 2000 to 2012, Democrats won every year, usually winning between 55 to 75 percent of the votes. The current incumbent, Bruce Poliquin, is a Republican who won his seat in 2014 with less than 50 percent of the vote, and held it more handilly in 2016 with about 55%. He is currently running to defend it again. Poliquin was born in Waterville, Maine in 1953 and graduated from Harvard University with a degree in Economics. He was the Maine State Treasurer from 2010 to 2012 and lost the Republican nomination for a United States Senate Seat in 2012. Poliquin has recently supported the Republican tax bill. Poliquin’s opponent Jared Golden was born in Lewiston, Maine in 1982 and was a member of the Marine Corps, serving combat tours in Iraq and Afghanistan. He attended Bates College and worked for Republican Senator Susan Collins, so he is campaigning on his bipartisan experience. Golden has been a member of the Maine House of Representatives since 2014 and has been the assistant majority leader since 2016.

District Updates and Posts

ME-02 Polls in our Model

PoliStat | Oct. 11, 2018, 11:13 p.m.

Dates             Pollster                               Size    Type    Results

Oct 27 - 29    Emerson College                441    LV        Golden - 47%, Poliquin - 46%

Oct 15 - 18    Siena College                     455    LV        Golden - 41%, Poliquin - 41%

Oct 9 - 12      Global Strategy Group       400    LV        Golden - 48%, Poliquin - 42%

Oct 1 - 7        Pan Atlantic SMS Group    251    LV        Golden - 37%, Poliquin - 37%

Sep 12 - 14    Siena College                    506     LV       Golden - 42%, Poliquin - 47%

Sep 4 - 7        Mellman Group                 400    RV       Golden - 54%, Poliquin - 46%

July 25 - 30    Mellman Group                 400    LV        Golden - 46%, Poliquin - 46%