Michigan’s eleventh congressional district is located northwest of Detroit. The district population is 82% White, 5% African American, and 8% Asian. While the district supported Obama in 2008, it voted for Mitt Romney and Donald Trump in the following presidential elections.

The district incumbent, David Trott (R), is not seeking re-election in this race; the candidates running are Lena Epstein (R) and Haley Stevens (D). Epstein attended Harvard University and the University of Michigan, where she received her bachelor's degree and M.B.A., respectively. Epstein has served on the Michigan Child Abuse and Neglect Prevention Board and also co-chaired the Donald Trump Michigan Presidential Campaign in 2016. Stevens received her bachelor's in political science and her master's in social policy and philosophy from American University. She was appointed chief of staff of the Auto Task Force of the U.S. Department of Treasury in 2009 and has also helped set up the Office of Recovery for Automotive Communities and Workers and the White House Office of Manufacturing Policy.

Our model predicts a close race in this district.