MI-04 Michigan's 4th District

Candidate

Predicted Vote %

Predicted Win %

John Moolenaar

58.3%

93.7%

Jerry Hilliard

41.7%

6.3%

BPI

Blair Partisan Index

Measures how strongly a district leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party compared to the nation as a whole.

 

-10.1%

SEER Prediction

SEER Prediction

Forecasted Democratic % of vote, without considering national mood or polling.

 

35.5%

District Profile Last Updated: Oct. 5, 2018, 11:47 a.m.

Michigan’s fourth congressional district is located in central Michigan. The district is about 94% White and has voted Republican for every single election since 2000 except in 2008 when they voted for Obama. Dave Camp won the 2012 election with 63% of the vote and then John Moolenaar won the 2014 and 2016 elections with 57% and 62% of the vote respectively. The candidates running in this election are Moolenaar (R), the incumbent, and Jerry Hilliard (D). First elected in 2014, Moolenaar earned his master’s degree in public administration from Harvard. Hilliard has been endorsed by the AFL-CIO, a national trade union. Our fundamental-only model predicts a Republican win.

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