NJ-03 New Jersey's 3rd District

Candidate

Predicted Vote %

Predicted Win %

Tom MacArthur

50.3%

54.3%

Andy Kim

49.7%

45.7%

BPI

Blair Partisan Index

Measures how strongly a district leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party compared to the nation as a whole.

 

-3.8%

SEER Prediction

SEER Prediction

Forecasted Democratic % of vote, without considering national mood or polling.

 

41.8%

District Profile Last Updated: Oct. 5, 2018, 11:47 a.m.

New Jersey’s 3rd district contains two counties: Burlington and Ocean County. Burlington County is considered a swing county, although it has voted consistently Democratic in recent presidential elections. Ocean County is a strongly Republican county. The district has voted increasingly Republican in congressional elections since 2010. In the 2016 election, the Republican candidate received more than 60% of the two-party vote. The district is 96.17% urban. The district’s population is 85.6% Caucasian, 8.8% African American, 2.8% Asian, 3.8% Hispanic, 0.2% Native American, and 0.4% other.
The incumbent of this race is Republican Tom MacArthur, who was elected in 2014. His key issues include job opportunities, middle-class tax cuts, and repealing Obamacare. The Lugar Center - McCourt School of Public Policy Bipartisan Index reported MacArthur as the 44th most bipartisan member of the US House of Representatives. His opponent is Democrat Andy Kim. Kim’s key issues include lowering health care cost, supporting small businesses, and ending partisan gerrymandering. He has worked on national security with the Secretary of Defense and Pentagon and has served in Afghanistan as a strategic advisor.

District Updates and Posts

NJ-03 Polls In Our Model

PoliStat | Oct. 11, 2018, 11:13 p.m.

Oct 21-25    Siena College/New York Times    508 LV    Kim 44%    MacArthur 45%

Oct 18-22    Monmouth University    363 LV    Kim 49%    MacArthur 45%

Oct 3-10    Stockton University    546 LV    Kim 45%    MacArthur 47%

Oct 2-4    National Research, Inc.    400 LV    Kim 40%    MacArthur 44%

Sep 22-26    Siena College    499 LV    Kim 49%    MacArthur 39%

Sep 4-5    DCCC Targeting Team    523 LV    Kim 47%    MacArthur 45%

Aug 7-9    Monmouth University    300 LV    Kim 46%    MacArthur 44%

Jun 11-21    Global Strategy Group    400 LV    Kim 42%    MacArthur 42%

May 29-Jun 3    Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (Democracy Corps)    550 LV     Kim 44%    MacArthur 48%

Apr 16-17    Public Policy Polling    669 V    Kim 41%    MacArthur 42%

Feb 14-15    Public Policy Polling    336 V    Kim 43%    MacArthur 47%