NY-01 New York's 1st District

Candidate

Predicted Vote %

Predicted Win %

Lee Zeldin

55.2%

94.4%

Perry Gershon

44.8%

5.6%

BPI

Blair Partisan Index

Measures how strongly a district leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party compared to the nation as a whole.

 

-5.1%

SEER Prediction

SEER Prediction

Forecasted Democratic % of vote, without considering national mood or polling.

 

40.6%

District Profile Last Updated: Oct. 5, 2018, 11:47 a.m.

New York’s 1st district is 78% White and 13% Hispanic, and includes a large variety of people ranging from very wealthy to rural farmers. The district’s house position was held by Democrats from 2002 until 2014, when Republicans took over. In 2014 and 2016, Republican Lee Zeldin won 54.5% and 58.2% of the two-party vote, respectively. The Republican candidate is incumbent Lee Zeldin, who also works as a lawyer. The Democratic candidate is Perry Gershon, a businessman.

District Updates and Posts

NY-01 Polls in our Model

PoliStat | Oct. 11, 2018, 11:13 p.m.

Oct. 27-29    Change Research            838 LV    Gershon 37%    Zeldin 52%

Oct. 8-10      GBA Strategies                500 LV    Gershon 46%    Zeldin 50%

Oct. 4-8        Siena College                  502 LV    Gershon 41%    Zeldin 49%

Sep. 11-17    Global Strategy Group    400 LV    Gershon 44%    Zeldin 47%