PA-10 Pennsylvania's 10th District

Candidate

Predicted Vote %

Predicted Win %

Scott Perry

52.2%

73.6%

George Scott

47.8%

26.4%

BPI

Blair Partisan Index

Measures how strongly a district leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party compared to the nation as a whole.

 

-5.6%

SEER Prediction

SEER Prediction

Forecasted Democratic % of vote, without considering national mood or polling.

 

40.0%

District Profile Last Updated: Oct. 5, 2018, 11:47 a.m.

Pennsylvania’s new 10th congressional district, in the southeast part of the state, contains the cities of Harrisburg and York. It’s most similar to the pre-redistricting district 4, but has moved to the North and contains a greater urban population. It would’ve voted for Donald Trump by 9 points as opposed to old district 4’s 21 point margin for Trump. Republican incumbent and former Army colonel Scott Perry, who has led old D4 since 2013, emphasizes patriotism in his campaign. He faces off against Democratic pastor George Scott, whose slogan is “Integrity. Service. Compassion.”

District Updates and Posts

PA-10: Polls in Our Model

PoliStat | Oct. 11, 2018, 11:13 p.m.

Oct 23-26     Siena College/            498LV    George Scott (D): 43%    Scott Perry (R): 45%      

                       New York Times

Oct 19-21     Susquehanna Polling    366LV    George Scott (D): 46%    Scott Perry (R): 49%

                      & Research Inc

Sep. 24-25    Public Policy Polling    650 V    George Scott (D): 43%    Scott Perry (R): 44%

Jun. 8-10    Public Policy Polling    654 LV    George Scott (D): 41%    Scott Perry (R): 45%