PA-11 Pennsylvania's 11th District

Candidate

Predicted Vote %

Predicted Win %

Lloyd Smucker

60.9%

98.8%

Jess King

39.1%

1.2%

BPI

Blair Partisan Index

Measures how strongly a district leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party compared to the nation as a whole.

 

-14.3%

SEER Prediction

SEER Prediction

Forecasted Democratic % of vote, without considering national mood or polling.

 

31.3%

District Profile Last Updated: Oct. 5, 2018, 11:47 a.m.

Pennsylvania’s new 11th congressional district, in southeast PA, consists of the city of Lancaster and surrounding rural areas. It’s most similar to the pre-redistricting 16th, however it contains fewer urban areas and swings more Republican, voting for Trump by 26 points as opposed to the old 16th’s 7 point margin for Trump. Republican Lloyd Smucker is the incumbent from the old 16th district (first elected in 2016) and is running for re-election. He is a former businessman and state senator. His Democratic challenger is businesswoman and non-profit director Jessica King.

District Updates and Posts

PA-11: Polls in Our Model

PoliStat | Oct. 12, 2018, 8:13 a.m.

Sep. 12-15    Public Policy Polling    552 V    Jess King (D): 35%     Lloyd Smucker (R): 44%