PA-16 Pennsylvania's 16th District

Candidate

Predicted Vote %

Predicted Win %

Mike Kelly

52.5%

74.1%

Ron DiNicola

47.5%

25.9%

BPI

Blair Partisan Index

Measures how strongly a district leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party compared to the nation as a whole.

 

-9.6%

SEER Prediction

SEER Prediction

Forecasted Democratic % of vote, without considering national mood or polling.

 

36.0%

District Profile Last Updated: Oct. 5, 2018, 11:47 a.m.

Pennsylvania’s 16th congressional district is in the very north west of Pennsylvania, starting at Erie,stopping just before Pittsburgh, and bounded by the state borders and district 15. About 36.6% of the population lives in rural areas. It is very similar to the old district 3. Erie leans Democratic and the rest of the district leans Republican. The Republican candidate is Mike Kelly, an incumbent who supports business and a smaller role for government. His opponent is Ron DiNicola, a Democrat and veteran who aims to improve education and health care.

District Updates and Posts

PA 16: Polls in Our Model

PoliStat | Oct. 11, 2018, 11:13 p.m.

October 29th-30th Susquehanna Polling and Research, Inc. 405 LV Dinicola 51% Kelly 47%

October 9th-10th DCCC Targeting Team 548 LV Dinicola 46% Kelly 49%

October 5th-8th Siena College 532 LV Dinicola 42% Kelly 50%

June 5-7th Normington, Petts & Associates 400 LV Dinicola 44% Kelly 50%

May 21-22nd Public Policy Polling 623 RV Dinicola 43% Kelly 48%