UT-04 Utah's 4th District

Candidate

Predicted Vote %

Predicted Win %

Mia Love

51.1%

63.1%

Ben McAdams

48.9%

36.9%

BPI

Blair Partisan Index

Measures how strongly a district leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party compared to the nation as a whole.

 

-5.1%

SEER Prediction

SEER Prediction

Forecasted Democratic % of vote, without considering national mood or polling.

 

40.6%

District Profile Last Updated: Oct. 5, 2018, 11:47 a.m.

Utah’s fourth district lies in the center of the state, primarily in Salt Lake County and part of Salt Lake City. Its current representative is Mia Love, the first black female Republican to be elected to Congress. Before taking office in 2015, she served as mayor of Saratoga Springs. Facing her is Bec McAdams, Salt Lake County Mayor and former member of the Utah State Senate. This is Utah’s most competitive district by far; Love only won re-election 51% and 54% of the vote in 2014 and 2016 respectively.

District Updates and Posts

UT-04 Polls in Our Model

PoliStat | Oct. 11, 2018, 11:13 p.m.

Oct 24-26    Siena College/New York Times    526 LV    McAdams 45%    Love 45%

Oct 25    Dixie Strategies    936 LV    McAdams 50%    Love 43%

Oct 3-11    University of Utah    403 LV    McAdams 46%    Love 46%

Oct 7-10    Mellman Group    400 LV    McAdams 47%    Love 46%

Sep 6-8    Y2 Analytics    405 LV    McAdams 42%    Love 51%

Aug 22-Sep 6    Dan Jones and Associates    400 LV    McAdams 46%    Love 49%

Aug 11-27    Lighthouse Research    600 RV    McAdams 38%    Love 48%

Aug 20-23    Mellman Group    400 LV    McAdams 44%    Love 46%

Jun 11-18    University of Utah    379 RV    McAdams 39%    Love 45%

May 15-Jun 5   Dan Jones and Associates    405 LV    McAdams 43%    Love 47%

Feb 27-Mar 4    Mellman Group    400 LV    McAdams 40%    Love 43%

Feb 9-21    Dan Jones and Associates    404 RV    McAdams 43%    Love 49%

Jan 15-22    Dan Jones and Associates    400 RV    McAdams 42%    Love 47%