VA-02 Virginia's 2nd District

Candidate

Predicted Vote %

Predicted Win %

Scott Taylor

52.0%

75.4%

Elaine Luria

48.0%

24.6%

BPI

Blair Partisan Index

Measures how strongly a district leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party compared to the nation as a whole.

 

-5.7%

SEER Prediction

SEER Prediction

Forecasted Democratic % of vote, without considering national mood or polling.

 

39.9%

District Profile Last Updated: Oct. 5, 2018, 11:47 a.m.

Virginia's 2nd Congressional District encompasses all of Accomack and Northampton Counties, portions of York County, and the cities of  Virginia Beach and Williamsburg and parts of the cities of Norfolk and Hampton. This district has historically leaned Republican, but has been experiencing a shift toward Democratic: despite 58% of the votes going to Bush in 2004, Obama won with 50% for both of his elections, while Trump only held 48%. Democrat and retired military commander Elaine Luria is running against incumbent Republican Scott W. Taylor.

District Updates and Posts

Latest Polls

PoliStat | Oct. 11, 2018, 11:13 p.m.

Nov. 2-4    Change Research    710 LV    Luria 47%    Taylor 47%

October 3 - 12    Christopher Newport University    740 LV    Luria 44%    Taylor 50%

Sept. 26 - Oct. 1    Siena College        500 LV    Luria 41%    Taylor 49%

Sept. 26 - 28         Change Research  758 LV    Luria 48%   Taylor 48%

Sept. 5 - 8              Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group    Luria 51%    Taylor 43% 

Jun. 26 - Jul. 1       Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group    Luria 44%    Taylor 48%

Apr. 16 - 17             Public Policy Polling    Luria 42%    Taylor 48%