MBHS Polistat's

ORACLE of Blair

2018 House Election Forecast

Current Prediction

Each square is one congressional district.

Recent Updates & Posts

Blog Post

No Math, Mo Problems

PoliStat | Oct. 29, 2018, 8:48 a.m.
Analysis of Discrepancies Between ORACLE Predictions and Expert Ratings of Swing Districts in California

Blog Post

In Support of Simplicity: Analyzing Our Use of Elasticity

PoliStat | Oct. 29, 2018, 8:02 a.m.
We shouldn't use FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores. A uniform shift to account for national mood would be more transparent, simpler, and have little effect on the model.

Blog Post

Battleground Smackdown

PoliStat | Oct. 26, 2018, 8:53 a.m.
A comparison between ORACLE and 538’s calculated vote share in select battleground districts.

Blog Post

Drawing the Line

PoliStat | Oct. 25, 2018, 8:56 a.m.
A Closer Look Into North Carolina's Gerrymandering

Blog Post

Welcome to ORACLE of Blair!

PoliStat | Oct. 11, 2018, 12:38 p.m.
Over the course of the next month until election day, this space will be used to post more in-depth analysis of our model and predictions.